Senate

Question: Eight weeks out, with the forecasters moving races toward the Democrats and the president’s super PAC spending its first general-election dollars of the cycle, is the Senate majority within reach? Answer: The models call it a coin flip. Inside Elections moved four races toward the Democrats this week, Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s best guesses land on a 50-50 Senate, and the money is following the map: Trump’s MAGA Inc. made a $10 million buy in Texas, its first of the cycle. Democrats still need a net gain of four, and a 50-50 Senate belongs to Vance. The path runs through North Carolina, two coin flips in Ohio and Texas, and a bench of races from Maine to Alaska, with Kansas as the margin seat. ...

Question: How do Democrats get from 47 seats to a Senate majority in 2026, and who would be the Majority Leader if they do? Answer: They need a net gain of four seats, because a 50-50 tie belongs to the vice president, and the vice president is a Republican. The map gives them a real shot: one likely pickup in North Carolina, two coin flips in Ohio and Texas, and a bench of competitive races from Maine to Alaska. If the defense holds and the flips land, the Majority Leader is almost certainly Chuck Schumer, and the real fight is over who succeeds him. ...