Risk

Ninety Days From Today Count it out on a calendar. Ninety days from this morning is January 30, a Saturday, which means this window closes on the last weekend of the first month of a new year. Between here and there sit two Federal Reserve meetings, on December 8 and 9 and again on January 26 and 27; a midterm election on November 3, two days from now; a Treasury quarterly refunding on November 4; an October employment report on November 6; October inflation on November 10; Nvidia’s quarter on November 17; a Thanksgiving on November 26; November employment on December 4; November inflation on December 10; a government funding deadline on December 11; a Christmas on December 25; a new Congress seated on January 3; and the December employment and inflation reports in the second week of January. ...

Ninety Days From Today This is the fourth installment of a series I started on September 3. Same calendar discipline, same premise, new window. Ninety days from this morning is January 30, a Saturday. The furniture in the room first. The Federal Reserve meets twice between here and there, on December 8 and 9, which comes with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections, and on January 26 and 27, which does not. In between sit a midterm election on November 3, two days from now; the Treasury’s quarterly refunding on November 4; a White House hearing on the removal of a Fed governor on November 5; October employment on November 6; October inflation on November 10; Nvidia’s fiscal third quarter on November 17; a Thanksgiving on November 26; November employment on December 4; November inflation on December 10; a government funding deadline on December 11; a Christmas on December 25; a new Congress on January 3; and the December employment and inflation reports in the second week of January before the Fed meets on the twenty-sixth and twenty-seventh. ...

On Thursday, October 22, Nvidia fell 4.4 percent. By Friday’s close of $210.96 the stock had posted its third consecutive losing week, sat 12 percent below the high it set on October 6, and was down 7.6 percent for the month, its worst month since last November (CNBC, October 24, 2026). Nothing in that week’s news explained the selling. At GTC Berlin the company announced a shipping container holding seven Vera Rubin racks, which cuts the time to bring a data center online from six months to fourteen days, and a supply-chain expansion that includes a $1.1 billion capacity advance to a Taiwanese testing house (CNBC, October 21, 2026; NVIDIA, October 21, 2026). Those are the announcements of a company that expects to sell an enormous amount of hardware. ...

On July 31 I argued that the danger in the artificial intelligence buildout lay less in whether the technology works than in how the capital behind it is arranged: hardware that depreciates faster than the debt secured against it, revenue that arrives slower than the projections promise, and a downside diffused onto private-credit funds, pension holders, and index investors who never chose the bet. On October 14, that argument acquired a price. ...

Ninety Days From Today Count it out on a calendar. Ninety days from this morning is December 30, a Wednesday, which means this window closes two days before the year does. Between here and there sit two Federal Reserve meetings, on October 27 and 28 and again on December 8 and 9; a midterm election on November 3; a Treasury quarterly refunding on November 4; a government funding deadline on December 11; a Thanksgiving on November 26; and a Christmas on December 25. That is the window this article is about: one quarter of a year in which the world’s largest bond market has to price a war in its eighth month and a central bank that has told it, in plain language, to expect more. ...

Ninety Days From Today This is the third installment of a series I started on September 3. Same calendar discipline, same premise, new window. Ninety days from this morning is December 30, a Wednesday. The furniture in the room first. The Federal Reserve meets twice between here and there, on October 27 and 28, which the market now expects it to skip, and on December 8 and 9, which comes with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and is the meeting that decides what the year looked like. In between sit a midterm election on November 3; the Treasury’s quarterly refunding on November 4; third-quarter earnings, which open on October 13 with JPMorgan and peak in the last week of October; three inflation reports, on October 14, November 10, and December 10; three employment reports, on October 2, November 6, and December 4; the minutes of this week’s Fed meeting on October 7; Nvidia’s quarter, which the company has dated November 17; a Thanksgiving on November 26; and a government funding deadline on December 11. Read the last three dates of the year in sequence: the Fed decides on December 9, inflation prints on December 10, and the continuing resolution expires on December 11. ...

Ninety Days From Today Count it out on a calendar. Ninety days from this morning is December 17, a Thursday. Between here and there sit two Federal Reserve meetings, on October 27 and 28 and again on December 8 and 9, a midterm election on November 3, a quarterly refunding on November 4, and a Thanksgiving on November 26. That is the window this article is about: one quarter of a year in which the world’s largest bond market has to price a war that shows no sign of ending and a Federal Reserve that just proved it will act anyway. ...

Ninety Days From Today This is the second installment of a series I started on September 3. Same calendar discipline, same premise, new window. Ninety days from this morning is December 17. The window is unusually well furnished, so let me put the furniture in the room before I say anything else. The Federal Reserve meets twice between here and there: October 27-28, which the market expects it to skip, and December 8-9, which comes with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and is the meeting that will decide what the year looked like. In between sit a midterm election on November 3, three inflation reports (October 14, November 10, December 10), three employment reports (October 2, November 6, December 4), the minutes of this week’s Fed meeting on October 7, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding on November 4 (Treasury tentative auction schedule), third-quarter earnings season opening on October 13 with JPMorgan and peaking in the last week of October, and a government funding deadline on December 11. Read those last three dates in sequence: the Fed decides on December 9, inflation prints on December 10, and the continuing resolution expires on December 11. That is the whole year’s argument compressed into seventy-two hours, and it lands six days before this window closes. ...

On Tuesday, September 8, a 28-year-old researcher named Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic and said the people building the technology believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This week, the story did not fade, as stories usually do. It compounded. Evan Hubinger, Anthropic’s alignment lead, said he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could kill all humans within the next decade, and that the field did not yet have a plan to solve alignment.1 Paul Christiano, the former head of safety at the US Commerce Department’s Center for AI Standards and Innovation, said the recent pace of capability gains gave him “a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term.”2 Two researchers named Wang, one at OpenAI and one at Anthropic, posted within hours of each other that recursive self-improvement was the danger “hard to overstate” and that “there is not yet a viable scientific plan” to make it safe.3 OpenAI’s chief scientist wrote that he expects the speed of progress to carry into systems that increasingly drive their own development, and called it “a time that calls for extreme caution,” adding, “I am concerned no one is prepared for the consequences of a continued rapid rise in machine intelligence.”4 ...

On Tuesday, September 8, 2026, a 28-year-old researcher named Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic and posted his reasons on X. He had previously worked at OpenAI. He wrote that neither company was acting responsibly, that they were “racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives,” and that the people building the technology “earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.”1 Two of his colleagues, still employed, backed him up. Evan Hubinger, a lead in Anthropic’s alignment division, wrote that he personally believed there was a greater than 10 percent chance AI could kill all humans within the next decade, and that the industry did not yet have a plan to solve alignment.2 Samuel Marks, Anthropic’s scalable oversight lead, added the line that should have stopped the conversation: “In general, the more senior the employee, the more concerned they are.”3 ...