Investing

The bond market is the one institution in American life that cannot be lied to. Politicians can promise anything. The Federal Reserve can hold rates and issue statements. But the price of a 30-year Treasury is a verdict, rendered every trading day, by people putting real money behind their judgment of where inflation, deficits, and credibility are headed. In the summer of 2026, that verdict has been unambiguous: the 30-year yield touched 5.2 percent, its highest level since 2007, and the 10-year has climbed past 4.7 percent even though the Fed has not moved its policy rate since late 2025 (Cox, 2026; Peterson, 2026). ...

Ninety Days From Today Count it out on a calendar. Ninety days from this morning is December 2. Between here and there sit a Federal Reserve meeting on September 16, a midterm election on November 3, and another Fed meeting in early December. That is the window this article is about: one quarter of a year in which the world’s largest bond market has to price a war that shows no sign of ending. ...

Ninety Days From Today This article is the companion to one I published this morning about the bond market’s next ninety days. Same calendar, same premise, different victim. Ninety days from this morning is December 2. Between here and there sit a Federal Reserve meeting on September 16, a midterm election on November 3, and another Fed meeting in early December. The bond article argued that the window prices a war that shows no sign of ending. This one asks what that window does to the stock market, and the honest answer is: something the index’s current price barely contemplates. ...

“First say to yourself what you would be; and then do what you have to do.” — Epictetus, Discourses, 3.23 Net interest on the federal debt is set to cross $1 trillion this fiscal year, more than the Pentagon’s entire budget, and it holds there every year through 2035 on the Congressional Budget Office’s own numbers (CBO, 2025). On the CBO’s calm, no-crisis baseline, debt held by the public breaks the record set finishing World War II by fiscal year 2030 (CBO, 2026). That’s about four years out. Treasury’s response this month was to double its debt buyback program, a move I wrote about this week in Treasury Buybacks: A Colossal Failure in the Making: a few billion dollars a month against a $32 trillion market, a rounding error dressed up as a fix. ...

Net interest on the federal debt is on pace to cross $1 trillion this fiscal year, more than the Pentagon spends, a gap the Congressional Budget Office says holds every year from 2025 through 2035 (CBO, 2025). And on the CBO’s own current baseline, the boring one, no crisis, no shock, no recession assumed, debt held by the public breaks the record set in 1946 at the height of World War II by fiscal year 2030 (CBO, 2026). That’s roughly four years out. Whatever actually fixes this needs to already be running by then, not still working its way through committee. ...

The Illusion of Control Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent frames the move as a liquidity measure for a thin summer bond market, not an attempt to suppress yields by fiat. Call it what you will: the mechanism is the same, the government stepping in to buy debt investors don’t want, at prices they wouldn’t otherwise pay. Bessent’s decision to double the debt buyback program is not a solution. It is a desperate gamble that will fail on contact with reality. The move is predicated on a dangerous illusion: that the U.S. Treasury can outmaneuver the bond market by sheer force of will. This is not fiscal policy; it is magical thinking dressed in bureaucratic jargon. ...

Three facts describe the current state of artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, and none of them are matters of opinion. The companies building that infrastructure have, over the past five years, repeatedly extended the accounting assumptions that determine how quickly their hardware loses value on paper — assumptions that flatter today’s earnings regardless of what eventually happens to the hardware itself. The revenue actually being generated by the AI industry falls far short, by any reasonable measure, of what would be required to justify the scale of capital currently being committed. And the financing structure built to bridge that gap has diffused the risk away from the technology companies themselves and onto pension funds, index-fund investors, and, in some cases, ordinary electricity ratepayers — parties who never chose to make a bet on artificial intelligence at all. ...

While the bulk of the “No Kings” protests unfolded across the United States, the movement found resonance in international communities as well — signaling that opposition to perceived authoritarianism and executive over-reach in Washington has an overseas echo. 🌍 Global Participation The protest coalition behind No Kings, led in the U.S. by Indivisible and the 50501 Movement, also mobilized international chapters and diaspora groups under alternate banners such as “No Tyrants” or “No Dictators” when the word “Kings” ran the risk of confusing anti-monarchic protest abroad. (Wikipedia) ...

🪞 A Reflection When people talk about investing, they usually focus on charts, PE ratios, or the “hot” asset of the moment. But Morgan Housel, in The Psychology of Money, reminds us that the hardest part of investing isn’t math — it’s behavior. Your emotions, your patience, and your discipline will determine more about your wealth than any spreadsheet ever will. Wealth Is What You Don’t See Wealth isn’t the car in the driveway or the vacation photos online. Real wealth is invisible: the money you quietly didn’t spend, the patience you showed when others splurged. For retirees, that discipline decades ago is what pays dividends today. ...

Markets are very good at finding the weak joint in a man’s composure. You can believe yourself disciplined when the line is moving up and to the right. You can quote long-term return data, admire compound interest, and say the proper things about patience. Then the market drops hard before lunch, the headlines turn red, and the abstract virtue becomes a practical test. The question is no longer whether you believe in discipline. The question is whether discipline still has your hands when fear reaches for the keyboard. ...