Question: Sixteen days before Election Day, Democratic Senate candidates raised four times what Republicans raised, nine of the week’s eleven rating changes moved their way, and the president’s approval fell to a record low, so why does control of the Senate still come down to five states that could go either way?
Answer: Because a lead is not a majority, and this week made the difference between them visible. The third-quarter filings, due October 15, showed Democratic candidates raising $253 million to the Republicans’ $56 million across the fifteen races NBC News rates as competitive, and winning the money race in fourteen of them.1 Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved five Senate ratings, four of them toward the Democrats, and its tally now stands at 49 seats at least leaning Democratic, 46 at least leaning Republican, and five toss-ups: Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas.2 That arithmetic is the week’s most important number. A week ago Republicans needed three of four toss-ups to hold a 50-50 chamber with the vice president’s tiebreaker, and Democrats needed two of four. This week Republicans need four of five, and Democrats still need two.2 The path got cheaper for one party and narrower for the other in the same seven days.
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